U.S. businesses are facing a growing crisis of product shortages and empty store shelves as shipments from China continue to decline, driven by the impact of President Donald Trump’s steep 145% tariffs on Chinese imports. Retailers are warning that these supply chain disruptions, reminiscent of the COVID-era shortages, could soon leave American consumers without essential goods, especially as the busy shopping seasons for back-to-school and the holidays approach.
After the tariffs were imposed this month, many U.S. companies have been forced to cancel orders and halt new shipments from China. As a result, freight vessel arrivals at the Port of Los Angeles are down 33% compared to the same time last year, according to Port Optimizer data. Retailers are particularly concerned about the availability of popular items like footwear, apparel, electronics, and toys, which are heavily manufactured in China.
Jonathan Gold, Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy for the National Retail Federation, highlighted the growing uncertainty retailers face. “They’re making their holiday buying decisions now, and it’s a challenge to figure out how to properly order and price with all the uncertainty around the tariffs,” Gold said. The tariffs mean U.S. companies are paying a significant premium on goods, often leading to higher consumer prices or potential losses on sales. A company importing a $100 item from China would have to pay at least $145 in tariff fees, which could wipe out profits and make the goods unaffordable.
Small businesses, in particular, are feeling the strain. Many of them do not have the resources to stockpile goods in anticipation of tariffs. Jessica Berger, CEO of the pet product company Bundle x Joy, found herself facing a $180,000 tariff bill for her latest shipment of dog toys, which had already left China before the new tariffs took effect. “Six months ago, I wouldn’t have been able to cover this cost. It could have put me out of business,” Berger said, stressing the tight financial margins small businesses often operate within.
Some U.S. retailers like Target have already suspended orders from Chinese suppliers, and certain manufacturers of products such as press-on nails and pet accessories have found their shipments delayed indefinitely. Analysts warn that these cancellations are likely to escalate product shortages over the next few months, especially for items with limited shelf lives, like food and beverages.
“The lack of availability of products like apple juice and fish could create supply chain challenges for retailers,” said Sean Stein, President of the U.S.-China Business Council. “We are going to start running out of stock, and if the administration waits too long to address this, we could see hoarding and panic buying, just like we did during the pandemic.”
Retailers are also worried about the impact of the tariff uncertainty on the upcoming holiday shopping season. While larger companies have had the financial muscle to increase inventory ahead of the tariffs, many smaller businesses have not had the same luxury. The National Retail Federation projects a 20% drop in imports from China in the second half of the year if the tariffs remain in place.
The White House has taken notice of the looming threat of empty store shelves. After meeting with major retailers, President Trump indicated that he might reduce the tariffs, though no formal action has been taken. However, with tariffs already in place and supply chains already stretched, it may take weeks or even months to fully resolve the disruption. The reduction in shipments has led to a ripple effect across the broader shipping and trucking industries, with excess truck capacity and declining shipping rates causing further delays.
As the tariffs continue to bite, experts warn that the longer the disruptions persist, the harder it will be to restore normalcy. “We’re looking at months of recovery time,” said Dean Croke, principal analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics. “Even if everything returned to normal today, the shipping industry will still face significant delays.”
The combination of canceled orders, high tariff costs, and limited availability of goods suggests that U.S. consumers could soon face a scenario of empty store shelves and rising prices in the coming months. Whether these disruptions can be mitigated will depend largely on future trade negotiations and decisions made by both U.S. and Chinese officials. The stakes are high, and retailers, manufacturers, and consumers alike are watching closely.