June 12, 2025 — Washington, D.C.: Millions of Americans on Social Security could see a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) increase in 2026, according to new estimates based on current inflation trends. If the projected Social Security COLA increase holds, beneficiaries may receive an average boost of $40.70 per month, raising the typical monthly check from $1,948.17 to approximately $1,988.87.
The latest projection comes from Mary Johnson, a leading Social Security policy analyst, who noted that the forecast has inched up from 2.4% last month following the release of May’s inflation data.
“This estimate may rise,” Johnson said, “as we still have four more months of consumer price index data before the official COLA is announced in October.”
How the COLA Is Calculated
The Social Security COLA increase is based on changes in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) between July and September each year. The purpose of the COLA is to ensure that Social Security benefits keep pace with inflation and protect the purchasing power of retirees and other recipients.
For 2025, recipients received a 2.5% COLA. If current trends continue, next year’s increase would match that, but further inflationary changes could still push it higher or lower.
Political and Financial Pressures on Social Security
The rising number of claims and long-term solvency concerns continue to place pressure on the Social Security Administration (SSA). A record 4 million Americans are currently receiving benefits, and funding challenges are growing. The SSA’s workforce has also shrunk by over 7,000 employees in the last decade, further straining operations.
In addition, some Republican-led proposals have revived discussions around raising the full retirement age to 69 by 2033 — a change that could reduce lifetime benefits for millions. Analysts estimate such a shift could cost retirees up to $420,000 over their lifetime, or about $3,500 annually.
While Social Security is not going bankrupt, experts warn that unless Congress acts to reform the program, beneficiaries could face a 23% benefit cut by 2035 when trust fund reserves are projected to run dry.
For now, the 2026 Social Security COLA increase is shaping up to be modest but meaningful. As Johnson and other analysts continue monitoring inflation, the final number will be confirmed by the SSA in October 2025.