Intel Stock — Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) has seen its stock plunge more than 35% over the past year, significantly underperforming both the broader semiconductor industry and key rivals like NVIDIA and AMD.
With mounting challenges ranging from competitive headwinds to geopolitical tensions, investors are asking: is it time to give up on Intel—or could a bold turnaround be taking shape?
Over the past year, Intel has been struggling to keep pace with its more agile peers. While NVIDIA surged ahead with cutting-edge GPUs like the H100 and Blackwell, Intel found itself burdened by legacy products and slow innovation. The company’s aggressive push into AI and next-gen manufacturing was marred by high wafer costs, underutilized capacity, and pricing pressures from rivals.
Adding to the pressure, worsening U.S.-China trade relations have further weakened Intel’s revenue outlook. China, which accounted for nearly 30% of Intel’s revenue in 2024, is now actively phasing out American chips in favor of homegrown alternatives.
Washington’s tightening restrictions on tech exports have only intensified Beijing’s self-sufficiency drive—leaving Intel squeezed from both sides.
Despite these headwinds, there may be a light at the end of the tunnel.
In March 2025, Intel appointed tech veteran Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO—marking a major leadership pivot. Tan has already begun a bold restructuring, cutting 20% of Intel’s workforce to eliminate inefficiencies and accelerate innovation.
This leaner operational model aims to slash expenses to around $17 billion by year-end, positioning the company for sharper execution in a fiercely competitive landscape.
Tan is also doubling down on Intel’s foundry business and next-gen chip manufacturing. The 18A node (1.8nm) process—set to debut in Intel’s upcoming Panther Lake CPUs—could rival TSMC and Samsung in performance and efficiency.
Intel’s recent partnership with Microsoft to use the 18A process in custom chips signals growing traction in the foundry space. A few more such deals could dramatically change investor sentiment.
Still, challenges remain. Delays in building its massive Ohio plant, now not expected to be ready until 2030, could limit future capacity. And while 2025 earnings per share are estimated at just $0.30, Wall Street projects a possible rebound to $3.00 by 2028 if Intel executes well. In a best-case scenario, INTC shares could rise from the current $20 range to as high as $90.
Right now, analysts maintain a cautious “Hold” consensus on the stock, with a modest average price target of $21.29. But for long-term investors willing to weather short-term turbulence, Intel’s low valuation and transformational strategy under new leadership could offer significant upside.