Bitcoin’s long-term outlook just got a major upgrade. ARK Invest, led by Cathie Wood, has raised its 2030 price target for Bitcoin to a staggering $2.4 million per coin in its most optimistic scenario.
The new forecast is a 60% jump from the firm’s previous high estimate of $1.5 million. It reflects a 72% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from the end of 2024 through 2030. Even ARK’s base case now sits at $1.2 million, while the bear case sees Bitcoin reaching $500,000.
The upward revision comes from a refined model that focuses on Bitcoin’s “active supply”, which excludes lost or dormant coins. This provides a clearer view of actual circulating supply and potential demand.
Key Drivers of Bitcoin’s Potential
ARK analyst David Puell identified six major factors fueling the new forecast:
- Rising institutional investment from pension funds and sovereign wealth funds.
- Bitcoin’s role as digital gold and hedge against inflation.
- Adoption in emerging markets and use by governments for reserves.
- Increased corporate treasury allocations, like those seen with Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy).
- Growth of on-chain financial services replacing legacy systems.
- Bitcoin’s fixed supply, expected to reach 20.5 million by 2030.
These drivers combined with the active supply model are pushing confidence in long-term Bitcoin appreciation.
Supply Squeeze Boosts Short-Term Sentiment
Bitcoin is currently trading around $94,000, rebounding from recent lows of $74,500. A notable drop in exchange-held BTC — from 3 million in November 2024 to 2.6 million today — signals rising long-term holding by investors.
This decline in exchange balances is often seen as a bullish sign, as it reduces immediate sell pressure and reflects confidence in future price growth.
Other Bold Predictions Join ARK’s Outlook
ARK isn’t the only voice predicting massive growth. Bitcoin bulls across the industry are offering sky-high targets:
- Michael Saylor projects a $500 trillion market cap, or $23.8 million per BTC.
- Standard Chartered sees $500,000 BTC by 2028.
- Daniel Roberts and Thomas Fahrer expect $1 million within five years.
- Samson Mow says $1 million could happen by end of 2025.
- H.C. Wainwright raised its 2025 BTC forecast to $225,000.
- Tom Lee believes BTC will top $150,000 in 2025.
Optimism Meets Volatility
While the projections are sky-high, they come with caution. Bitcoin remains volatile and tied to macroeconomic shifts. Still, growing adoption and a shrinking liquid supply suggest strong upside potential.
If trends hold, Bitcoin’s path to $1 million or more by 2030 may be more realistic than many once thought — and the race has already begun.